How Does Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Affect Europe’s Transition to Clean Energy?
By Caleb Painter
For several decades now, Europe has been relying extensively on Russia for its energy needs, with the E.U importing 41% of its natural gas, 27% of its crude oil, and 47% of its coal from them. This was not the case 50 years ago, when Europe was supplying roughly the same amount of gas it was consuming, thanks to a combination of gas fields in the North Sea and in the Netherlands. However, as these sources depleted or were shut down, Europe has turned to Russia as the main source of their energy needs. Today the E.U. is the largest importer of natural gas in the world.
This dependence on Russia for gas and other fossil fuels has been put in the international spotlight since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has risen tensions between it and EU countries and threatens to increase the prices of gas and oil. International sanctions could potentially drive up the costs of producing and distributing fossil fuels, Russia could also choose to squeeze its exports for strategic purposes, and conflict in Ukraine could affect the physical pipelines that transport gas. Roughly a third of Russian exports flow through Ukraine, and damage to this infrastructure could have large ramifications in the energy market.
Energy prices in Europe have already been high recently, due to a variety of factors such as the pandemic, an especially harsh winter, and Germany’s decision to retire many nuclear power plants. Getting completely cut off from Russian gas sources would have severe effects on E.U. countries, and nations and industries would struggle to keep residential buildings heated and factories running. Di Odoardo, vice president of global gas research at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, said that “In the Armageddon event that Russia kind of halves exports, Europe could only last around six weeks [in cold weather] with the level of storage that they have,” before power outages and rationing would become necessary in many countries.
With tensions between Russia and Europe increasing daily, more and more are advocating for less dependence on Russia for oil and gas needs. “A strong European Union cannot be so reliant on an energy supplier that threatens to start a war on our continent,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said to a group of European policymakers this Saturday. “We are doubling down on renewables. This will increase Europe’s strategic independence on energy,” she said. However, transitioning away from Russia and towards renewables is not easy. There’s a lack of strong infrastructure in place and renewable energy plants take many years to construct. Policymakers recognize that any shift to be made won’t happen overnight, which means that Europe will rely on Russia for energy throughout the current crisis.
Still, there are steps being taken to move in the right direction. German chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the stop to the development of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would carry natural gas from Russia to Germany. The E.U. is also planning to reveal a new energy plan for a shift towards green energy this following week on March 2. According to an official involved in drafting the strategy, it would call for a 40 percent reduction in fossil fuel use by 2030 and demand that European energy companies fill their storage tanks with natural gas, so as to be less reliant on Russian exports during the winter. When it comes to where new sources of energ ywill come from, “The bulk of renewable electricity should come from the North Sea via offshore wind,” says Tim Schittekatte, a research scientist at MIT. There needs to be strong multilateral cooperation between the North Sea States for this to be effective though.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has highlighted Europe’s dependence on them for gas and oil exports, especially with the recent decision to expel certain Russian banks from SWIFT, the high-security network that connects thousands of international financial institutions. It is uncertain how this move will impact oil and gas flows, and the situation will develop rapidly in the coming days and weeks. At the moment though, it’s clear that Europe needs to be taking steps to reduce its reliance on Russia for gas and oil, and start generating more renewable energy of its own. It’s a process that will take time, but one that should start now.