Space: The Final Frontier of the Climate Debate

By Jack Walker

THE TRIFECTA: SATELLITES. CARGO, AND POLITICS

Last month, all eyes turned and watched as SpaceX sent the first-ever crewed orbital mission that didn't include any professional astronauts into space. But, SpaceX’s operations did not begin with launching astronauts beyond the stratosphere. Instead, the success of May’s Crew Dragon launch is the result of decades of innovation, research, and policy advancements — stemming back to the launch of commercial satellites in the 1960s. Such television, surveillance, and communications installations operate within the 100-1,240 mile range of Low Earth Orbit. This was once the limit of private enterprise.

However, the approaching new millennium brought changes to counter the public space agency domination. Boeing began contracting with the International Space Station in 1995, and now the company helps operate the station on a $3 - 4 billion annual contract with NASA. The subsequent US Presidential administrations of the 2000s furthered the emergence of the private sector—despite the partisan discrepancies. Under Republican President George W. Bush, NASA initiated the outsourcing of cargo supply flights to the ISS, awarding contracts to SpaceX and Orbital ATK.  Bush’s successor, Democratic President Barack Obama, amplified these outsourcing relationships by hiring Boeing and SpaceX to fly more than just cargo—but live astronauts as well. Only time will tell if the executive branch will continue to ride this momentum further into the 21st century.

Stemming from these administrative changes, America’s chief public space agency has begun to reshape its outlook and operations. Before, NASA was generally perceived as the cardinal entity in space — fascinating generations with its unrivaled technology and budget, the latter of which was roughly $9.5 billion in 2019, over $8 billion ahead of the closest competitor: China. However, the agency seems to be shedding that role. In 2019, NASA announced the launch of commercial and marketing opportunities for the ISS, as it draws closer to the ultimate goal of partnering with commercial entities to “achieve a strong ecosystem in which NASA is one of many customers purchasing services and capabilities at a lower cost.” In short, outsourcing is now the name of the game.

Such is evident with contractors such as Boeing and SpaceX continually improving their vehicle designs to more effectively haul NASA cargo. However, the real catalyst came with the Space Shuttle’s retirement in 2011. Although NASA turned to spending $81 million per seat aboard Russian Soyuz rockets, many in the private sector took this opportunity to invest in and expand their human spaceflight capabilities. And they never looked back.

ABORT MISSION?

Faced with the opportunity to access a new spectrum of industries, humanity must work to close the door to the Earthly industry’s lagging problems. Environmentally-speaking, consumer spaceflight will make this incredibly difficult. Climate change — at least partially induced by industrial practices — has brought this planet to a breaking point. Any further strain on the environment may prove too costly, not only for humanity but also for all of the life Earth supports. Even with its priorities laying in the opposite direction, NASA still tracks these costs through its National Climate Assessment Reports. 

The most recent report found several alarming statistics concerning human industrial activity and its detrimental impact on earth’s environmental wellbeing. Between 1901 and 2019, the average surface air temperature has increased by 1.0 C–marking the warmest period in modern times. Additionally, the last three years have been the warmest on record, the average sea level has risen 7-8 inches since 1900, heatwaves and large forest fires have both increased domestically since the mid-to-late 20th century, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have passed levels not present on Earth for some 3 million years. Any of these conditions would be tremendously detrimental as isolated occurrences; however, the situation is worsened by the fact that such conditions are present simultaneously — and are expected to continue.

An increase in private launches will not ease these concerns. Consider SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket: by the time this behemoth reaches the atmosphere, it has burned 400 metric tons of carbon dioxide — more than an average car will over 200 years. And while every rocket is not the Falcon Heavy, many modern rockets still rely on kerosene — which tends to carry “black carbon” into the upper atmosphere, initiating an umbrella-effect that only furthers Global Warming. 

Beyond the Earth’s atmosphere, space junk is growing into a more pressing issue with every new launch. There are already over 500,000 rocket components, satellite pieces, and other relics from past space missions drifting in orbit. With SpaceX’s plan to launch 12,000 disposable satellites as part of Starlink, this so-called junk ring is expected to grow. Not only does this increase the risk of falling debris landing in populated or protected areas, but “astronomers have expressed their concerns about how Starlink and its ilk will affect their observations, and other folks in the space community worry about the space-junk hazard such craft pose.” Again, time will tell how valid these concerns are.

NO, TO INFINITY AND BEYOND

What humankind can do, however, is extend into space to find more viable solutions to everyday issues back on the ground. Privatized space should open doors to new industries, markets, and job opportunities to help with the current global. As for the more pressing concern of a climate change-induced collapse, private space industries are becoming more and more environmentally-conscious; some even have the potential to be more sustainable than their counterparts back on Earth. 

At this very moment, the chief atmospheric issues associated with rocket emissions are being addressed by cleaner rockets. The toxic, heavily-polluting solid rocket boosters of the past are being phased out by many of today’s industry leaders. Consider Blue Origin’s strategy to operate more sustainably: relying on reusable rockets fueled by liquid hydrogen. In theory, this combustion reaction will deliver enough thrust while yielding water vapor as its only emission. SpaceX, in turn, pioneered in more efficient reusable rockets, utilizing a unique fuel injection system in the Merlin rocket boosters. Virgin Galactic’s two-ship system only requires its rockets to burn for 60 seconds, as a taxi vehicle transports the payload just below LEO. ArianeGroup, Europe’s largest launch company, is designing the Ariane Next rocket, which will run on biomass-produced methane in order to be carbon neutral by projected liftoff in 2030. Ultimately, both domestic companies such as Orbex and international entities, including Germany’s ISAR Aerospace, have their sights set on reducing soot, black carbon, and carbon emissions—with realistic aims of 25-40% reductions.

Then there is asteroid mining. Although quite far-off given existing technology and policies, this would be a much more sustainable alternative to current mining and fracking methods on Earth. Uninhabited formations in space offer minerals and substances essential to terrestrial economies. Obtaining them, however, would not necessitate destroying the natural environment in the process. Therefore, space exploration should offer some optimism in wake of the pending climate and energy crises. 

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